by Dr. Vanessa Neumann

We were right: as we predicted in our previous blog, Lenín Moreno became the new President of Ecuador in last night’s second round elections.

Since our electoral forecast was correct, you might do well to read our economic forecast.

Last night was not without its excitement though. Right wing candidate Guillermo Lasso called the election in his favor, on the basis of exit polls that put him in the lead. The first sign of trouble was when Spain announced that Moreno won before Ecuador’s own electoral commission made its announcement. Lasso and his supporters shouted fraud and images of the alleged manipulation went viral on Latin American social media. Lasso has vowed to keep contesting the results, which should make for some volatility with demonstrations and wide-spreading conspiracy theories.

Image that went viral alleging that last night’s presidential election in Ecuador was stolen.

Here are some further predictions and assessments we are prepared to make:

1. Moreno will assume the presidency, regardless.
2. Venezuelan Pres. Nicolás Maduro and his Chavista cohorts are happy not to have lost a key Bolivarian ally, at a time when the OAS wants to suspend Venezuela as a dictatorship and other countries are pulling their ambassadors.
3. Julian Assange will hang out in that Ecuadorean embassy “just ’round the back of Harrod’s” rather longer now, evading the clutches of the London Metropolitan policemen who hang out at his door 24/7 — as well as the Swedes, who want to prosecute him for rape, and the Americans, who would quite like to have a word with him.

Given the economic and political tight rope Ecuador will have to walk, President-Elect Moreno would do well host Assange without an Internet connection though.