Asymmetrica’s SIGINT on pharmaceuticals have resembled a rollercoaster lately.

This morning it was at 2.34 sigmas from the mean.

As explained in our previous blog, that is somewhere over 96% probability of similar events. It is the fourth time in less than a month we have seen such dramatic spikes in online conversations and querying into our underlying feeds. While there are many component signals, the primary drivers for each of the spike events are as follow.

June 19th: Chinese discussions about the mumps vaccine

July 2nd: English-language research on the meningococcal vaccine

July 7th: Chinese discussions and research about the mumps vaccine

July 10th: English-language concern and research about the rabies vaccine

Let’s take them one by one.

Chinese vaccine scandal

The Chinese querying (into websites outside China, which is even more remarkable) in mumps vaccines is the roiling on of a scandal that unfolded in February, after it was revealed a 47-year-old woman, charged in connection with the illegally traded vaccines, had bought and sold vaccines worth a total of 570 million yuan with the involvement of 300 dealers in 24 provinces since 2010. The woman was arrested in April last year, but the case was made public only in February. The Chinese government came under fire, with some Chinese even challenging censors by taking to microblogging sites and calling it a “genocide” by the government. The scandal reinforces longstanding concerns over the safety of mainland food and medicine. China’s growing middle class is demanding better quality goods, air and medicines.

The recent spikes we are seeing are prompted by responses to government announcements about new measures to ease bottlenecks in response to widespread complaints that many of the injections have not been available at community health centres, where people usually receive vaccinations. In some cases, there were shortages of shots for rabies and polio, in addition to MMR (measles, mumps and rubella). To counter this, the state health authority and drug regulator have introduced temporary measures (applicable until the end of the year) to allow vaccine producers to sell directly to local centres for disease control and prevention, and use the government’s transport network to deliver vaccines to grass-roots health centers.

All the vaccines distributed in the scandal were type II – administered on an elective basis and paid for by the patient, a fact that has done nothing to quell popular outrage and (as we see by Internet querying) concern. Again, this is another consequence of China’s growing middle class: they are increasingly aware of Western-style vaccinations and are demanding the government deliver them safely for Chinese children, whether the government pays for them or not.

Meningococcal fears in the US

An unusual cluster of Invasive Meningococcal Disease has been developing in Los Angeles County (including Long Beach) and Orange County since April. By the end of June, there were more than 22 cases and one death, with particular prevalence in the LGBT community. While the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) did not host a formal press conference about the outbreak until July 7th, the spikes indicate that many members of the community, activists and healthcare givers were concerned and doing research on the meningococcal vaccine well before the CDC announcement, which was widely criticized by the LGBT community as coming far too late.

Rabies fears in the US

The spike in rabies research is likely in response to a plethora of news stories of cases of rabies all across the Mid-Atlantic into Northeast States, from Georgia to New York. While we have no indication that the number of cases deviates significantly from the mean for a typical American summer, as the number of news stories accumulates, people are growing concerned.

At Asymmetrica, we continually track these and all our signals to gauge public reaction to news stories and local events pertaining to illicit trade and brand integrity.