China has strong relationships with many countries in Latin America, but due to the limited ability of United States companies to invest and export to Cuba, China has been able to get ahead when it comes to economic relations with the long isolated island. As part of a recent trip to Cuba with a group of students from The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Affairs (JHU-SAIS), we had many meetings that discussed Cuba’s current and future economic relationships. Though the Cuba-China relationship was rarely explicitly discussed, the general consensus was that China has been working hard to establish business ties before the embargo ends with the United States and they will be competing for contracts as they do in the rest of the developing world.

China is Cuba’s second largest trading partner after Venezuela. In 2015, trade between China and Cuba increased by 57 percent, reaching some US$1.6 billion according to Beijing officials. In addition, Cuba is China’s largest partner in the Caribbean, with bilateral trade now standing at a little over $2 billion annually, according to Chinese government data. Not only are the Chinese working quickly to invest in projects, China also has the advantage of having gone through a similar experience of slowly opening up a more government-controlled system to foreign investment and the private sector.

In the lead up to President Obama’s historic visit to Cuba, Chinese newspapers were very outspoken on their advice to remain cautious when dealing with the United States. One article, from China’s Communist newswire, Xinhua, struck a foreboding tone: “U.S. President Barack Obama’s upcoming visit to Cuba, though a historic move, cannot reverse the fact that the United States has not yet dropped its ideology of interventionism in Latin America.” This type of sentiment proves that China is skeptical of Cuba’s growing ties with the United States but is using ideological reasoning to prevent the U.S. from gaining a stronger foothold in the country and with the Cuban people. After historic announcements from Obama on March 21st on the deal permitting the first U.S. hotel chain to operate in Cuba, according to the Washington Post, many Chinese editorials urged Cuba to stick with socialism rather than side with the capitalist newcomers. “Yes, Obama’s visit is commendable for indicating the possibility of communication and collaboration between countries with divergent ideologies,” said one of the Xinhua editorials. “But Washington needs to offer substantive and sufficient compensation to the island country to pay for its past wrongdoings.”

There seem to be many ways in which the relationship between China and Cuba impacts average Cubans. One observation from our recent visit was the stark difference in buses used for local transportation in Cuba, compared to the rest of the Latin America: it hints at the bourgeoning commercial relationship in the automotive sector. In Central America is it very common for retired American school buses to be auctioned off and transformed into colorful local buses. It was a quite different to see only plain looking Chinese buses instead of these American buses, known as “chicken buses.” Also, after easing restrictions on imports of foreign made cars, Chinese cars are starting to fill the roads, slowly replacing the picturesque American cars of the 1950s.

Though China has not had unfettered access to the Cuban market, it has certainly been able to get ahead and forge business ties where the U.S. and U.S. companies have fallen far behind. As Cuba begins to open up to foreign investment and businesses, they will look towards countries they can trust, and many contacts we spoke with, implied Cuba trusts China. Although the U.S. is celebrating a grand restoration of relations between the U.S. and Cuba and big changes are predicted in the private sector, there will still be complex regulations and plenty of risks that may scare away American businesses. As China increasingly steps into the breach, it looks well-positioned to dominate Cuba’s trade and political relationships.