Asymmetrica has a network of unique human sources on the ground in various emerging and frontier markets that cross communities and the political spectrum. This steady and varied flow of information gives a well-rounded perspective on ground truth and allows for discounting or
corroboration of unexpected reporting. It also puts us well ahead of the curve of publicly available information. It is our business to know what is going to happen before others do.
Asymmetrica has a strategic collaboration with a predictive analytics platform that monitors on-line digital conversations to predict volatility in geopolitics and in asset prices. The system has correctly predicted high probabilities for the November 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris and North Korean missile launches. It uses machine learning to identify patterns in digital conversion prior to past events, and then runs sparse regressions to forest future occurrences of those event types, within a window of 1 to 90 days. With this system, Asymmetrica can, using its insights into what digital conversations matter and what event sets are relevant to country studies:
• Assign probabilities to future political events such as terrorist attacks, strikes and public demonstrations.
• Predict large moves in asset prices such as FX, CDS, FI yields and some commodities.