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Twilight of Venezuela’s Idols: Was Today PDVSA’s Day of Reckoning?
Today the joint forces of diplomacy, finance and military might closed in on the regime of Venezuela's president Nicolás Maduro, hastening its demise. Here is what happened today: EU issued sanctions on Venezuela. This significantly complicates next week's renegotiations in Caracas of $160 billion of debt. The negotiations were unsavory...
Saudi Purge: Anti-Corruption or Coup?
It was a cataclysmic weekend in the KSA, as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is commonly known. First, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri (a Sunni) fled to Riyadh and announced his resignation in a televised broadcast from there, citing "the long arms of Hezbollah." He was afraid the Iranian proxy...
Iran’s Upcoming Elections: What to Expect
by Kimya Zahedi Iranians vote for their next president on May 19th. Both the immediate outcome and longer term consequences of that election will impact both regional relations within the Middle East and the US role in the region. The Iranian Electoral System In the eyes of the Iranian state,...
Venezuela Burns for Democracy
The opposition controls 2/3 of Venezuela's National Assembly since December 2015. (The December 2016 local elections were cancelled and the presidential referendum denied.) Last week, on March 30th, the Venezuelan Supreme Court effectively staged a coup in favor of the regime (autogolpe, in Spanish) by stripping the National Assembly's legislative power. The outrage over the Supreme...
Chavista Sympathizer Lenín Moreno Is New President of Ecuador
by Dr. Vanessa Neumann We were right: as we predicted in our previous blog, Lenín Moreno became the new President of Ecuador in last night's second round elections. Since our electoral forecast was correct, you might do well to read our economic forecast. Last night was not without its excitement though. Right wing...
Ecuador’s Elections: Friendlier Business Environment Probable
by Dr. Vanessa Neumann Yesterday's elections in Ecuador are unfolding as Asymmetrica predicted in December 2016 in scenarios we constructed for a European private equity firm. Ecuadoreans took to the polls on 19 February 2017, just two days after a major earthquake centered on Guayaquíl killed 41 people. However, Ecuador...
Trump’s Protectionism is Our Gain
by Dr. Vanessa Neumann As President Trump's first week in office unfolded, Asymmetrica has been blasted with phone calls and emails from our Latin American friends. They are worried not just about entering the US, but trading with it: Pres. Trump's talk of imposing tariffs on imports from Mexico (in contravention of...
Venezuela: Killings & Detentions Close Options
by Dr. Vanessa Neumann While the world does not pay attention, the Chavista rulers in Venezuela are closing regime change options by detaining, torturing and killing the emergent effective leaders of the opposition. The people being targeted are members of opposition (MUD) political parties forming an alliance in the more radical wing of the...