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Análisis de 1ra Vuelta de Elecciones en Colombia
por Maria Teresa Belandria, Fulbright Research Scholar Visiting Professor en el Centro William J. Perry Center para Estudios de Defensa Hemisféricos en la Universidad Nacional de Defensa en Washington, DC, y consultora a Asymmetrica en temas de seguridad latinomaericana El pasado domingo 27 de mayo se realizó la primera vuelta...
Iván Duque Will Be Colombia’s Next President
The result of Sunday's first round elections in Colombia (which had that country's highest electoral participation in 20 years) are that conservative candidate Iván Duque will face former M-19 guerrillero (and local chavista) Gustavo Petro in June 17th's second round of voting. We predict Iván Duque will win Colombia's presidency. Here are the scenarios....
Venezuela’s Fake Opposition: How the Regime Kidnapped the People
The chatter in the world of Venezuela watchers this week was about Harvard professor Ricardo Hausmann's proposal for a D-Day Venezuela: he argued the opposition-controlled National Assembly should use its power as the internationally-recognized legitimate government to depose Maduro and request an international military intervention to assist it in restoring...
Twilight of Venezuela’s Idols: Was Today PDVSA’s Day of Reckoning?
Today the joint forces of diplomacy, finance and military might closed in on the regime of Venezuela's president Nicolás Maduro, hastening its demise. Here is what happened today: EU issued sanctions on Venezuela. This significantly complicates next week's renegotiations in Caracas of $160 billion of debt. The negotiations were unsavory...
Saudi Purge: Anti-Corruption or Coup?
It was a cataclysmic weekend in the KSA, as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is commonly known. First, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri (a Sunni) fled to Riyadh and announced his resignation in a televised broadcast from there, citing "the long arms of Hezbollah." He was afraid the Iranian proxy...
Iran’s Upcoming Elections: What to Expect
by Kimya Zahedi Iranians vote for their next president on May 19th. Both the immediate outcome and longer term consequences of that election will impact both regional relations within the Middle East and the US role in the region. The Iranian Electoral System In the eyes of the Iranian state,...
Venezuela Burns for Democracy
The opposition controls 2/3 of Venezuela's National Assembly since December 2015. (The December 2016 local elections were cancelled and the presidential referendum denied.) Last week, on March 30th, the Venezuelan Supreme Court effectively staged a coup in favor of the regime (autogolpe, in Spanish) by stripping the National Assembly's legislative power. The outrage over the Supreme...
Chavista Sympathizer Lenín Moreno Is New President of Ecuador
by Dr. Vanessa Neumann We were right: as we predicted in our previous blog, Lenín Moreno became the new President of Ecuador in last night's second round elections. Since our electoral forecast was correct, you might do well to read our economic forecast. Last night was not without its excitement though. Right wing...